Epistemic Angst

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Parsha Insights - Vuetchanan 2007

We read in our parsha this past week

(Deut 7:7)
לֹא מֵרֻבְּכֶם מִכָּל-הָעַמִּים, חָשַׁק יְהוָה בָּכֶם--וַיִּבְחַר בָּכֶם: כִּי-אַתֶּם הַמְעַט, מִכָּל-הָעַמִּים.
In English:
The LORD did not set His love upon you, nor choose you, because ye were more in number than any people--for ye were the fewest of all peoples

So, Israel is much smaller than the other nations. Lest someone say that it is not so, I'll point out that the Torah actually says this many times.
Deut 4:38 לְהוֹרִישׁ, גּוֹיִם גְּדֹלִים וַעֲצֻמִים מִמְּךָ--מִפָּנֶיךָ
Deut 7:1 וְנָשַׁל גּוֹיִם-רַבִּים מִפָּנֶיךָ הַחִתִּי וְהַגִּרְגָּשִׁי וְהָאֱמֹרִי וְהַכְּנַעֲנִי וְהַפְּרִזִּי, וְהַחִוִּי וְהַיְבוּסִי--שִׁבְעָה גוֹיִם, רַבִּים וַעֲצוּמִים מִמֶּךָּ

What exactly does that mean? According to these websites:

here and here

the population of the world at the time of the Exodus was 50 million.

I'm not sure how reliable that number is, but if I shoot forward 1,000 years to the year 0 C.E. the range of estimates I get is 170-400 million
here, here, here, and here

so, to me, assuming 50 million 1,000 years prior seems to fit.

So, if the world population is 50 million, and the Jewish population is 2 million, how exactly are they "the smallest of all the nations?" How many nations are there? Remember, Israel alone has 7 nations and Israel is a very small part of the world. What about Egypt, Aram, Moav, Amon, Edom? What about the Phoenicians? Greeks? All the bnei Yefet? the Germanic tribes? Africa? The Native Americans? Chinese? Asian Indians? Australians? I'm assuming the 50 million estimate is including all of them. I'm assuming the portion of the 50 million that resided in Israel was small, and yet, we seem to be saying that Israel contained a population of at least 14 million people.

I'm not sure, but, consider this. If indeed the Torah is correct, there must have been more than 14 million people living in Israel since at the time since it had 7 nations. Modern day Israel is 20,770 sq km,. Ancient Israel was smaller, so let's say it was 10,000 square km.

According to this website, the maximum amount of people you can stick into 1 sq km is enough for 12 people

This means, ancient Israel, which I'm assuming was 10,000 sq km would have been able to hold a maximum of 100,000 people. The Torah is saying it held more than 14 million. And, that's the best case scenario. In reality, things are worse than they seem because:
1. The Torah implies Israel's population was MORE than 14 million
2. Not all of Israel was inhabited. Some of it would have been desert or forest. For example, see Josh 17:15
וַיֹּאמֶר אֲלֵיהֶם יְהוֹשֻׁעַ, אִם-עַם-רַב אַתָּה עֲלֵה לְךָ הַיַּעְרָה, וּבֵרֵאתָ לְךָ שָׁם, בְּאֶרֶץ הַפְּרִזִּי וְהָרְפָאִים: כִּי-אָץ לְךָ, הַר-אֶפְרָיִם
And Joshua said unto them: 'If thou be a great people, get thee up to the forest, and cut down for thyself there in the land of the Perizzites and of the Rephaim; since the hill-country of Ephraim is too narrow for thee.'
3. 10 people per sq km is a maximum amount and only for irrigated locals. Israel wasn't irrigated. If we use the number for non irrigated locals we have only room for 10,000 people.

If the Bible's numbers are correct, there would have been more than one person living in every 714 sq meters in Israel. That means every person's land would be a plot of 26 meters by 26 meters, or 88 feet by 88 feet, and again, it would be much smaller due to the reasons noted above. I don't really know enough about farming to know how feasible that is, but the websites above don't seem to think it's that feasible. But, anyway, you can look at it like this. If the entire planet was that densley populated, the population of the Earth would be 209 Billion people. And, remember, it should be more than that since Israel is SMALLER than the 7 nations, not the same size. So, unless we have some reason to assume Israel is somehow special, we are basicaly saying the population of the Earth was over 200 billion at the year 1,000 BCE.

And, finally, if there were 14 million people living in Israel at the time, why is there no archaeological evidence for that?

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